This whitepaper examines the relationship between real interest rates and Canadian farmland returns from 1970 to 2025. The research finds that farmland appreciation was strongest during periods of negative real rates and declined as real rates increased. Average annual appreciation reached 15.2% when real rates were below 0%, compared with 9.7% when rates were between 0% and 4% and 1.2% when rates were 4% or higher.
The paper also compares Canadian farmland market returns with the Veripath strategy from 2009 to 2025. Over this period, the strategy generated a compound annual return of 15.3%, compared with 13.4% for the national market, and outperformed the market in 15 of 18 years. The analysis explores how interest-rate conditions, asset selection and disciplined acquisition pricing may influence farmland investment returns.