Climate change is shifting Canada’s agricultural climate northward. In this paper, Omnigence Asset Management examines how rising temperatures could affect the country’s farmland frontier and existing agricultural regions through 2100.
Using observed climate data and an intermediate emissions scenario, the analysis estimates that the area meeting the minimum heat requirement for small cereal crops could expand by approximately 2.2 million square kilometres—about 77% more than the area that qualifies today. Across the Prairie provinces, the heat-limited agricultural boundary could move 310 to 460 kilometres north.
This expansion should not be interpreted as the creation of new farmland. Soil quality, water availability, drainage, infrastructure, crop adaptation and environmental policy remain significant constraints across much of northern Canada.
The more immediate investment relevance lies in established farmland. Existing agricultural regions could gain roughly 500 growing degree days by 2100, potentially extending growing seasons, reducing frost risk and expanding crop options. Northern farming areas, including Peace River, may experience particularly meaningful improvements in growing conditions.View Full Report